Driver capacity is tightening by enforcement rather than by demand, and carriers are paying for drivers again
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 1, 2026 that the Department of Transportation forced the emergency shutdown of nearly 300 commercial driving schools and that federal agencies are demanding state licensing data on the roughly 200,000 immigrant drivers who hold about 5 percent of US commercial licences, according to the FMCSA. Some freight companies say the enforcement has contributed to a driver shortage and are raising wages and expanding recruiting, with J.B. Hunt's chief financial officer saying the company has more than doubled its driver recruiting team. Small shippers report worse service and higher rates and fees since the start of the year. More than 20 states have sued over the data demands and a judge has blocked the sharing pending a September hearing.
- Nearly 300 Driving Schools Shut Down
- 5% Of US Commercial Licence Holders, FMCSA
- 766 Unsafe Drivers And Vehicles DHS Says It Took Off The Road In One July Operation
Capacity is leaving by regulation, so it will not come back with a rate cut. In a demand driven cycle capacity returns when pricing recovers; here, drivers and training schools are being removed regardless of freight volumes, which makes carrier pricing power stickier into peak and puts carrier selection, contract structure and private fleet economics back on buyers' desks. Driver recruiting, screening and retention are budgeted line items again: when the largest carriers double their recruiting teams, every fleet owner is competing for the same pool. Worse service and higher fees for purchased transport are the classic trigger for insourcing lanes, and the buyers who win are the ones who can recruit and keep drivers. The September hearing and the school closures set the near term direction, so plan on a tighter market through the fourth quarter.